As the year 2023 comes to a close, the latest installment in the DC Extended Universe (DCEU), “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom,” has failed to make the waves Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) had hoped for. With just $4.5 million in Thursday previews stateside, coupled with negative critical reviews, the film is tracking to add a meager $35 million or less across the three-day domestic weekend. This underwhelming performance has left many questioning the future of the DCEU, even as the franchise attempts a reboot with the 2025 release of “Superman: Legacy,” helmed by James Gunn and Peter Safran.
Mixed International Prospects
While it’s possible that international receipts could bolster the film’s overall performance, there are already signs that it may not replicate the staggering success of the first “Aquaman,” which grossed $1.15 billion globally in 2017. While China’s advance ticket sales for “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” surpass those of “The Marvels“ and “The Batman,” they still fall short of “The Flash,” which disappointed with $270.6 million in the summer of 2023.
Critical Backlash
Negative critical reviews have been a stark contrast to the initial reception of the franchise back in 2017 when the first “Aquaman” film was considered a top-tier entry in the DCEU. Despite a modest $67 million domestic opening, the original “Aquaman“ managed to swim to $335 million in North America through the 2017 Christmas season. If the sequel could achieve a similar 5x final multiplier, it would still fall short of $200 million in domestic sales, adding to the film’s disappointment. A corresponding domestic-international split would yield foreign receipts ranging between $420 million and $480 million, projecting a worldwide gross between $600 million and $700 million.
Mixed Blessing
While a worldwide total of $600 million to $700 million wouldn’t be insignificant, it’s important to note that this would only make “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” the second-highest-grossing superhero movie of 2023, behind “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3.” It would also mark the DCEU’s most successful film since the original “Aquaman.” This performance is indicative of the challenging year that superhero cinema, WBD, and the DCEU have faced, given that even a domestic total of $33 million this weekend, a 3x multiplier, and tripled international grosses would make it the second-highest-grossing DCEU movie of the year, with $396 million worldwide.
A Cautionary Tale
Unless audiences overwhelmingly disagree with the critics or other films in the market fail to gain traction, it’s doubtful that “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” will soar beyond the $500 million mark, let alone reach the lower end of earlier estimates. The film’s decision to adopt a relatively subdued marketing campaign, devoid of major premier events, and its downbeat tone leading up to release, with reminders that it doesn’t set up future storylines, suggests that it was expected to rely heavily on its own merits.
A Gloomy Outlook
While a $700 million performance isn’t entirely out of reach, and strong international numbers could boost its prospects, there is little room for optimism at this juncture. The tumultuous year of 2023 has taught us not to take success for granted.
Challenges for Warner Bros.
This underperformance isn’t just bad news for Warner Bros. but also for the overall box office landscape. It means that “Wonka“ and “The Color Purple“ will shoulder most of the holiday season’s box office expectations. Although “Wonka“ has been doing decent business, it hasn’t quite set the box office on fire. The fate of these films remains uncertain, especially with “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” already contributing to the year-end challenges.
As the year draws to a close, the underwhelming performance of “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” serves as a sobering reminder that success at the box office is never guaranteed, and the DCEU faces uncertain waters ahead.
